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  • Durée: 1 jour
  • Prix régulier: Sur demande

Advanced Kanban (Metrics and Forecasting Workshop)

Duration : 1 day

Our public sessions are offered in French. Private sessions are available to you in English, contact us for more info.

“When will it be done?” “How many items will I get in the next release?” “When will all of the items in the backlog be completed?” Those are some of the first questions that your customers will ask you once you start work for them. This hands-on workshop will provide you with the tools you need to answer those questions predictably. In this tutorial, attendees will learn what metrics are necessary for accurate forecasting, how to visualize those metrics in appropriate analytics, how to use those analytics make reliable forecasts and understand risk, and, finally, how to make meaningful interventions for overall process improvement.

This tutorial is for

  • Anyone who has been asked to answer “When Will It Be Done?” or otherwise had to give an estimate for a User Story, Epic, Feature, Project, and/or Release;
  • Executives, managers, or team members who want better understanding and transparency into the health and performance of their process;
  • Anyone who currently uses the Kanban Method and is interested in how to improve the overall predictability and efficiency of their current practices.
Learning outcomes
  • An understanding of what Kanban metrics are necessary for predictability;
  • An ability to make accurate forecasts for single items including how to forecast when an individual story, epic, or feature will be done;
  • An ability to make accurate forecasts for multiple items including how to know when all items remaining in a backlog will be done or an ability to project how many items will be completed by a given release date and the risks associated with each;
  • An understanding of how to use flow metrics and analytics to achieve a stable process including an understanding of why a stable process is necessary for accurate forecasting.
Topic areas
  • Flow Metrics: a deep dive into WIP, Cycle Time, and Throughput—including why you need to track them, how they are related through Little’s Law, and why they are important for forecasting;
  • Flow Analytics: an introduction to Cumulative Flow Diagrams (CFDs), Scatterplots, Histograms, and other supporting charts—including a detailed discussion of what they are, how to generate them correctly, and how to utilize them for better predictability;
  • Forecasting Using Monte Carlo Simulation: how to use flow metrics to answer “When will it be done?”—including an introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation and statistical sampling methods for forecasting (no advanced mathematics required!);
    Quantifying Risk and Risk Management: how an understanding of risk is crucial to developing accurate forecasts—including how to quantify risk in the different analytics’ charts and how changing forecast inputs can help to develop an overall risk profile;
  • How to Get Started: how to immediately apply these techniques to your current project or process to achieve the results you are looking for—including what data to collect, how to mine your data, and how much data you need to begin.

Ordre du jour

This workshop will be split into the following parts with several hands-on exercises throughout:
What is Predictability?
What data should we collect?
Forecasts for Single Items Using Cycle Time
  • What is Cycle Time and Why It Is Important
  • Traditional Single Item Forecasting Techniques and Why They Fail
  • Cycle Time Scatterplots and Forecasting
  • How to Quantify Single Item Forecast Risk (Percentiles and SLAs)
  • Improving Your Single Item Forecasts
Forecasts for Multiple Items Using Throughput and Monte Carlo Simulation
  • What is Throughput and Why It Is Important
  • Traditional Multiple Item Forecasting Techniques and Why They Fail
  • Introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation and Statistical Sampling Methods
  • How to Answer “How Many Items by X date?”
  • How to Answer “How Long to Complete Y Number of Items?”
  • How to Quantify Multiple Item Forecast Risk
  • Improving Your Multiple Item Forecasts
How to Know If You Can Trust Your Forecasts
  • Work in Progress and Little’s Law
  • Cumulative Flow Diagrams (CFDs)
  • CFDs: Little’s Law and System Stability (Conservation of Flow and Flow Debt)
How to Get Started
  • Topics in Data Mining
  • Things to Watch Out For
Parking Lot / Q & A / Wrap Up
Lunch will be provided

Savoir s’entourer des meilleurs

Simon Bourassa
Simon Bourassa
Formateur et conseiller en TI
Simon est passionné par le développement logiciel et le développement de produits, mais avant tout par l’ensemble des gens cachés derrière ces codes, qui travaillent main dans la main pour développer des solutions innovantes.
Pierre-Edouard Brondel
Pierre-Edouard Brondel
Formateur et conseiller en bureautique
Expert en pédagogie dans le domaine des technologies et de la bureautique cumulant plus de 25 ans d’expérience, Pierre-Édouard est d’abord et avant tout un passionné de capital humain.
Valère Drainville
Valère Drainville
Formateur et conseiller en efficacité professionnelle
Expert en collaboration et en efficacité professionnelle, Valère Drainville saura vous accompagner dans l’adoption et la gestion de vos outils de travail collaboratifs.
Frédéric Paradis
Formateur certifié et architecte en solutions infonuagiques
Formateur certifié Microsoft, Frédéric se décrit comme un magicien de l’infonuagique, cet espace mythique entre technologie et réalité.